The Great Texas Migration: How Remote Work and Economic Growth Attracted New Residents

The rapid rise of work-from-home and remote schooling during the pandemic triggered a significant shift in population dynamics, as individuals and families sought out areas with more affordable housing, desirable amenities, and proximity to loved ones. Among the favored destinations was the Lone Star State, as Texas experienced an influx of residents from other states, despite an overall drop in Americans’ mobility during the pandemic’s early stages. By 2022, this trend of relocating to Texas had accelerated.

According to census data, the combined effect of migration from other states and international sources resulted in a net gain of 350,000 new residents for Texas, the highest number since 2005. Interestingly, housing costs played a vital role in attracting newcomers to the state. Compared to other large states like California and New York, Texas boasted lower median home prices, making it an attractive option for those seeking more affordable living arrangements.

Moreover, Texas’ early easing of pandemic restrictions, lack of a state income tax, and robust economic growth served as additional magnets for individuals and families considering an interstate move. These factors, combined with the allure of the state’s diverse offerings, likely influenced many Texans to stay put instead of seeking greener pastures elsewhere.

Data from the American Community Survey revealed that Texas experienced a notable increase in interstate arrivals, contributing significantly to its net domestic migration growth. In the 2021 survey, Texas recorded 20 interstate arrivals per 1,000 total population, surpassing the 18 per 1,000 people recorded in the 2020 survey. Remarkably, the state’s domestic out-migration rate remained stable at 15 per 1,000 people during both survey periods.

While the largest Texas cities, including Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio, continued to attract migrants, there was a noticeable trend of newcomers gravitating towards the suburbs. The 2021 survey data revealed a decline in the share of movers settling in the central city within these four metropolitan areas.

The surge in remote work opportunities also played a role in reshaping migration patterns. Interstate migrants, both to Texas and other states, were more likely to work from home even before the pandemic. However, the share of interstate migrants working remotely increased significantly during the pandemic compared to non-movers. This growing gap suggests that the ability to work remotely influenced interstate mobility decisions.

Interestingly, individuals who could work remotely also demonstrated a higher likelihood of choosing Texas as their destination. Even before the pandemic, 10% of interstate movers who opted for Texas worked from home, surpassing the 8% of interstate movers who chose other states.

In contrast to major metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, which experienced population declines between July 2020 and June 2021, the largest cities in Texas remained outliers by not losing residents. Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio continued to attract new residents, with Dallas-Fort Worth gaining the most among major metro areas, followed by Houston and Austin.

The Current Population Survey’s Annual Social and Economic Supplement highlighted that housing and family-related factors played a substantial role in driving interstate migrants to Texas. The survey revealed that the share of Texas domestic in-migrants citing housing-related reasons for their move, such as homeownership aspirations, better housing, or affordability, rose to 22% in 2021, surpassing the state’s pre-pandemic average of 14%.

While Texas has seen remarkable growth due to these migration trends, rising house prices in the state’s major metropolitan areas may pose challenges in the future. Additionally, an aging U.S. workforce and the retirement of baby boomers are expected to lower mobility and slow domestic migration. Consequently, Texas may need to rely more on international migration than domestic movements.

Migration serves as a vital adjustment mechanism for market economies, helping to address labor shortages in booming areas and fill critical skill gaps. The ability to work remotely and the newfound freedom it provides workers to choose their locations have reshaped the landscape of migration. As labor becomes scarcer and regional competition intensifies, Texas must continue to prioritize economic opportunity and growth to remain attractive to workers with sought-after skills.